Nigeria: Report on Mini-Grid Market Opportunity
This country report, by the SEforAll Africa Hub and African Development Bank, is one of a series of country reports under the Market Intelligence business line of the African Development Bank’s Green Mini-Grid Market Development Programme (GMG MDP). The MDP has the ultimate objective of fostering access to electricity across Africa by promoting the development of green mini-grids where they represent a technically and economically better option than the extension of the main grid.
Slow progress has been made in Nigeria’s domestic energy sector, particularly in terms of rural electrification. At present, approximately 73.6 million (73.6m) people lack access to grid electricity (13.4m in urban areas and 60.2m in rural areas), with the national electrification rate at 60.6% (86.0% in urban areas and 34.1% in rural areas) (IEA, 2017). This corresponds to an urban-to-rural electricity access divide of some 450%. The electrified population has grown around 1.4% annually since 2005 (circa. 1m people per year), inconsistent with an existing national target of achieving 90% access to electricity by 2030 (circa. 55m people to be connected in 10 years).
But the report indicates that the potential for decentralised, renewable energy systems is very high, particularly given displacement potential for an estimated 14GW of existing decentralised diesel generator capacity. As of 2011 this translated to 1 generator for every 2.5 citizens and about 3.5 trillion Naira per year spent on diesel and petrol (30 billion USD, 45% of this by private households). Consequent vulnerability to fuel prices is set to intensify in the future. Nigeria’s population is also projected to reach 267 million by 2030, with a latent generation capacity requirement of 116GW.