REPORTS

Africa is already facing more severe climate change than most other parts of the world, despite bearing the least responsibility for the problem. With nearly one‐fifth of the world’s population today, Africa accounts for less than 3% of the world’s energy‐related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to date and has the lowest emissions per capita of any region. Africans are already disproportionately experiencing the negative effects of climate change, including water stress, reduced food production, increased frequency of extreme weather
events and lower economic growth – all of which are fuelling mass migration and regional instability.

For all of these difficulties, the global clean energy transition holds new promise for Africa’s economic and social development. As of May 2022, countries representing more than 70% of global CO2 emissions have committed to reach net zero emissions by around mid‐century. This includes 12 African countries that represent over 40% of the continent’s total CO2 emissions. These ambitions are helping set a new course for the global energy sector amid declining clean technology costs and shifting global investment. African countries – nearly all of which are party to the Paris Agreement on Climate Change – are poised to capture the technology spillovers of these changes and attract increasing flows of climate finance.

This Outlook explores a Sustainable Africa Scenario (SAS) in which Africa rides these shifting tides to achieve all African energy‐related development goals on time and in full. This includes universal access to modern energy services by 2030 and the full implementation of all African climate pledges. Realising all of these goals is a formidable undertaking. African countries need to take the lead with clear strategies and policies, while international institutions must reinforce their commitment to significantly increase their levels of support.